Comparisons
How the growth of prediction markets compares with legal online sports betting, online casinos, casinos and state lotteries.
Prediction markets vs. sportsbooks
Monthly dollars traded on U.S. prediction-market exchanges, next to the amount wagered with legal online sportsbooks in the 21 states that report it. In Aug 2026, exchange volume was 7.2 times that handle.
Exchange volume counts each contract at its $1 payout, which is what the buyers on both sides paid together; handle counts only the bettor's stake. Most exchange volume is sports, but not all of it. Handle states: Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, Vermont, Wyoming. Combined online/retail handle is excluded when an online figure is not separately reported.[1],[2],[3],[4],[5],[6],[7],[8]
Growth before and after the boom
Change from a year earlier over three equal spans. The last is the prediction-market boom, which starts in Sep 2025, the first month U.S. exchange volume passed $2.0B. Each month compares only states that reported both years and had been live for at least a year.
Boom
Month by month
The 2026 World Cup, played in the U.S., Canada and Mexico in June and July, lifted sports betting in those months.
Sports betting by state
Change in online sports handle from a year earlier, in Sep 2024–Aug 2025 and in the boom (Sep 2025–Aug 2026). States shown reported every month of both spans and had been live for a year.
What a bet costs
Of every $100 wagered in 2025, what the operator kept. A sportsbook keeps what bettors lose; an exchange keeps its trading fees, and traders win or lose against each other.
Revenue and state tax
| Period | Online sportsbook revenue | Revenue states | State tax paid | Tax states | Kalshi fee revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan–Dec 2024 | $8.4B | 17 | $1.3B | 17 | $24.0M[10] |
| Jan–Dec 2025 | $10.8B | 18 | $2.0B | 19 | $264M[9] |
| Jan–Aug 2026 | $6.1B | 18 | $901M | 18 | $2.0B[11] |
Sportsbook revenue and tax each cover states reporting every month of the period; their coverage counts may differ. Kalshi does not publish financials; its revenue figures are third-party estimates, and the latest covers the year to date, not the same months as the sportsbook row.
State lotteries
Change in lottery ticket sales from the prior fiscal year. Fiscal year 2026 ran from July 2025 to June 2026 in most states, and takes in most of the prediction-market boom so far.
Through FY2024: all 44 state lotteries, from the Census Bureau's survey of state finances. Later years: lotteries that have published figures for both years, from their own reports (Florida, Massachusetts, Maryland, North Carolina, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia in FY2026).
Scratch tickets and draw games
Draw-game sales rise and fall with Powerball and Mega Millions jackpots; scratch tickets are steadier, so they show underlying demand more clearly.
| Fiscal year | All tickets | Scratch tickets | Draw games | Money to the state | Lotteries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | −2% | −1% | −12% | −8% | 12 |
| FY2026 | +4% | +1% | +11% | +1% | 8 |
Scratch and draw columns cover the lotteries that report the split (5 in FY2026).
By state, FY2026
Sources
State sportsbook, online casino and casino figures come from monthly regulator reports; see Revenue and Data & method.
Lottery sales through FY2024 come from the Census Bureau's annual survey of state government finances. Later years come from each lottery's annual report, audited statements or year-end release, or from press coverage where the lottery hasn't published its own figures yet. Recent years are often preliminary and unaudited.
- Kalshi Volume: Daily, Monthly & All-Time Trading Volume · Ticker Tracker
Kalshi does not publish its own monthly volume series; this is a third-party tracker reading Kalshi's public trade data. Counts contracts at their $1 face value ("notional"), not dollars actually paid. Table covers Nov 2024 onward only; no earlier monthly data located.
Monthly Volume — Last 24 Months ... November 2024 $1,270,733,587 ... September 2026 $60,847,344,368
- Gemini Volume: Daily, Weekly & Monthly Charts · DeFi Rate
Data starts Dec 15, 2025 (platform launch).
Gemini volume by month, every month DeFi Rate tracks ... July 2026 $50M ... Its busiest whole month was July, with $50M.
- Polymarket US Trading Volume: Daily, Weekly & Monthly Charts · DeFi Rate
Data starts May 27, 2026 (platform launch). Separate order book from Polymarket's international exchange; the two are never combined in DeFi Rate's figures.
Polymarket US volume by month, every month DeFi Rate tracks ... September 2026 $8.8B ... May 2026 so far $325M. Do these numbers include Polymarket US? No.
- Rothera Trading Volume: Daily, Weekly & Monthly Charts · DeFi Rate
Data starts May 21, 2026. Rothera is Robinhood/Susquehanna's own exchange; most of Robinhood's event-contract flow still clears through Kalshi and is already counted in Kalshi's figures above — do not add Robinhood's self-reported total customer volume on top of Kalshi's.
Rothera is a prediction market exchange ... formerly LedgerX (MIAXdx), a CFTC-designated contract market ... Its busiest whole month was June, with $2.1B.
- DraftKings Predictions Volume: Daily, Weekly & Monthly Charts · DeFi Rate
Data starts Jun 11, 2026. Before and during its ramp-up, DraftKings Predictions also routed some order flow to Crypto.com and CME; this figure is DeFi Rate's own exchange-level reading via Railbird and may not equal DraftKings' total self-reported "Predictions" volume.
DraftKings Predictions is DraftKings' prediction market ... through Railbird, its CFTC-registered exchange ... Its busiest whole month was September, with $1.9B.
- ProphetX Volume: Daily, Weekly & Monthly Charts · DeFi Rate
Data starts Jun 16, 2026. ProphetX's own reports list contracts but not prices paid, so no separate "dollars paid" figure exists for it.
ProphetX volume by month, every month DeFi Rate tracks ... September 2026 $241M ... Its busiest whole month was September, with $241M.
- Underdog Exchange (UDX) Trading Volume: Daily & Monthly · DeFi Rate
Data starts Jul 17, 2026. Figure covers UDX's own exchange only; Underdog-branded volume that clears on other exchanges is not included and not separately available.
These figures are Underdog Exchange's own (UDX) ... not all volume placed through Underdog, some of which trades on other exchanges ... busiest month was September, with $715M.
- Novig Trading Volume: Daily, Weekly & Monthly Charts · DeFi Rate
Data starts Aug 4, 2026 (platform launch).
Novig volume by month, every month DeFi Rate tracks ... September 2026 $1.4B ... Its busiest whole month was September, with $1.4B.
- Kalshi Fee Revenue In 2025 Was $263.5 Million, With 89% Coming From Sports · InGame
Third-party estimate derived by applying Kalshi's published taker-fee formula to trade data; Kalshi is private and does not publish financials. Page shows "Last updated April 14, 2026."
That means 89% of Kalshi’s fee revenue came from sports
- Kalshi Stock: $22B Valuation — Is It a Buy? · TSG Invest
Third-party estimate; Kalshi is private and does not publish financials.
generated approximately $260 million in fee revenue in 2025 — up from $24 million in 2024.
- Kalshi non-sports fee revenue approaches $100 million monthly run-rate, driven almost entirely by 15-minute crypto contracts · SCCG Management
Secondary source attributing figures to InGame's trade-data analysis; Kalshi does not publish financials.
The platform reached $2.04 billion in cumulative fee revenue last week, according to reporting by InGame. Non-sports contracts accounted for 19.2% of total fees this year compared with 11% in 2025.